India surpassed China in population in 2023, becoming the world’s most populous country.
The change was projected by the United Nations and reflected a long-running demographic trend. India’s population continued growing while China’s population began declining, partly because of decades of low fertility and the legacy of the former one-child policy. India’s median age also remained much lower, giving it a larger share of people in childbearing years.
The exact date of overtaking cannot be observed precisely because population totals are estimates, not live head counts. The UN’s 2023 projections placed India ahead around April, although different statistical models may produce slightly different dates or totals.
A common mix-up is confusing population size with population density. Bangladesh is far denser, while China remains geographically larger. India’s lead also does not mean every Indian state is growing: several states, especially in the south, have fertility rates near or below replacement level.