What does the groundhog predict if it does NOT see its shadow?

If a groundhog does not see its shadow on Groundhog Day, the traditional prediction is an early spring.

The custom is observed on February 2 and comes from Pennsylvania Dutch weather lore. In the familiar version, a groundhog that sees its shadow supposedly retreats into its burrow, forecasting six more weeks of winter. No shadow reverses the omen and signals that spring will arrive early.

The tradition adapts older European Candlemas beliefs, in which a sunny February 2 suggested a prolonged winter. German-speaking immigrants transferred the custom to the groundhog, a familiar North American animal. Punxsutawney Phil is the best-known predictor, but many towns in the United States and Canada hold their own ceremonies.

This is folklore rather than a reliable forecast. Scientific studies have found no consistent relationship between a groundhog’s shadow and the actual timing of spring-like weather. “Early spring” is the traditional answer, not a meteorological guarantee.