Which organization officially dates U.S. recessions using a monthly business-cycle peak and trough?

The National Bureau of Economic Research officially dates U.S. recessions using business-cycle peaks and troughs.

The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920. Its Business Cycle Dating Committee determines the approximate months when U.S. economic expansions end and contractions begin, as well as when contractions end and recoveries start.

The committee examines a range of indicators, including employment, real personal income, industrial production, wholesale and retail sales, and real gross domestic product. It does not rely on a single statistic or an automatic rule that a recession must equal two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

Because official data are revised and economic downturns vary, the committee often announces turning points after the relevant period has passed. Its recession dates are widely used in research, journalism, and government analysis. The NBER’s approach explains why public discussion of a downturn can begin before an official recession date is announced.