Which index published by the Conference Board forecasts economic activity six to nine months ahead?

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index forecasts economic activity roughly six to nine months ahead.

The index is a composite measure rather than a single statistic. It combines signals that tend to change before the broader economy, including building permits, stock prices, weekly unemployment-insurance claims, consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, and the yield spread. The idea is to spot turning points before they appear clearly in employment or production data.

The U.S. government developed the business-indicator program in the 1960s. The Conference Board took over its publication in December 1995 and now releases leading, coincident, and lagging indexes. A leading index anticipates movement; a coincident index tracks current conditions; and a lagging index confirms trends after they have developed.

A common mix-up is treating the index as a precise recession timer. It is useful for judging direction and momentum, but it can give false signals and is revised as component data change. The Consumer Confidence Index is only one input, not the answer itself.