What 1934 economic model describes delayed price and production cycles caused by farmers responding to earlier prices?

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The 1934 economic model describing delayed price and production cycles caused by farmers responding to earlier prices is the cobweb model.

The model analyzes markets in which producers must decide output before observing the price at which that output will sell. Agricultural production is a classic example because planting decisions precede harvest. If farmers expand planting after seeing a high price, the resulting larger harvest may push the later price down. Their next response can then reduce supply and raise a subsequent price.

The model’s name comes from the path traced by successive price and quantity points on a supply-and-demand diagram. Depending on the slopes of supply and demand, the cycles may converge toward equilibrium, remain constant in size, or diverge away from equilibrium.

Nicholas Kaldor’s 1934 article helped develop the terminology and analysis. The model is a simplified framework: real farmers consider weather, inventories, contracts, expectations, technology, and government programs. Even so, it illustrates why a market can cycle around equilibrium rather than move directly to it.

Source: Wikipedia · fact-checked Sept. 2026

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